The first prediction market for pessimists — bet on the downfall only. Rugs, dumps, crashes, IRL L's. Winners split the pool when it sinks.
A parimutuel prediction market. Every market is a YES/NO question about something going down:
Both sides stake into a pool. When the market resolves, the winning side splits the whole pool pro-rata. A small 1% creator fee is taken on each bet and a 2% protocol fee on each withdrawal (see Fees). No house, no order book — just the crowd betting against each other.
| Chain | You bet in | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| 🪶 Hood (Robinhood Chain) | ETH | curated |
| 🔵 Base | USDC | trustless (UMA oracle) |
Two small fees, both capped in code:
| Fee | When | Goes to |
|---|---|---|
| 1% creator fee | on each deposit (bet) | the market creator — their reward for opening a market people bet on |
| 2% protocol fee | on each withdrawal (claim / early exit) | the protocol — used to buy back & burn $WATER |
So 99% of your bet enters the pool (1% to the creator), and when you withdraw your winnings the protocol takes 2% of what you pull out. The creator fee is capped at 5% and the protocol fee at 10% in code — they can never exceed those. Full refunds (voided markets) and early-exit bonuses are never taxed.
Withdrawing before close (on markets longer than 24h) costs a 30% penalty. That penalty is not kept by the protocol — it is paid to the opposite side's bettors, pro-rata to their stake, and they keep it even if their side loses (claimed via the Claim bonus button once the market settles). If the opposite side has no bettors, the penalty goes to the treasury. Short markets (≤24h) can't be withdrawn from, so no penalty applies there.
$WATER is live on Robinhood Chain: 0xdEbbe91C3c74186Eb0F71b382C576F5b11183177 · supply 1,000,000,000.
The protocol takes a 2% fee on every withdrawal. 100% of it buys back & burns $WATER — real protocol revenue turned into constant buy pressure + a shrinking supply. Just hold to become the house.
Every claim / early-exit pays a 2% protocol fee to the treasury → the treasury buys $WATER on the market and burns it. More betting volume → more buybacks → less supply. No emissions, no inflation — the token captures what the protocol actually earns.
Not live yet — directional, subject to change:
claim / refund.cancelStale lets anyone void a market a resolver never settled (after 30 days) — money is never locked by an absent resolver.| What | Chain | Address |
|---|---|---|
| Market v5 (current · fees) | Robinhood (4663) | 0xeFCb5D8fCb0326F1dCE432fDCfA5b6E0900C1910 |
| Market v4 (legacy · no fees) | Robinhood (4663) | 0x0C36AbB753BF8cDeda0a337759769182aB5F70bc |
| Market (Base) | Base (8453) | 0xcCe1a9B932a6f17A028582bc8a8507900ae3ce2a |
| $WATER token | Robinhood (4663) | 0xdEbbe91C3c74186Eb0F71b382C576F5b11183177 |
New markets are created on v5 (1% creator fee on deposit · 2% protocol fee on withdrawal → $WATER buyback & burn). v4 markets stay live & claimable but take no fees.
Experimental software — use at your own risk. Underwater Money is an unaudited MVP. Smart contracts can contain bugs; you can lose 100% of what you stake.
Withdrawals. On Hood, markets ≤24h are locked; longer markets can be withdrawn before close for 70% back (the 30% penalty goes to the opposite side). After close (and on Base) your stake is locked until resolution. Full refund only if a market is voided.
Resolution. On Base, outcomes are settled trustlessly by the UMA oracle. On Hood (MVP), outcomes are set by the protocol operator — you rely on them to resolve honestly.
Permissionless. Anyone can create a market; question text is user-supplied. Read carefully and never trust a market's wording blindly.
This is not financial advice, not an investment, and not a solicitation. Gamble responsibly and only with funds you can afford to lose. You are responsible for your own taxes and for complying with the laws of your jurisdiction.