underwater money ← back to app

Profit for bad vibes.

The first prediction market for pessimists — bet on the downfall only. Rugs, dumps, crashes, IRL L's. Winners split the pool when it sinks.

Built on Hood & Base Permissionless Parimutuel

What it is

A parimutuel prediction market. Every market is a YES/NO question about something going down:

Both sides stake into a pool. When the market resolves, the winning side splits the whole pool pro-rata. A small 1% creator fee is taken on each bet and a 2% protocol fee on each withdrawal (see Fees). No house, no order book — just the crowd betting against each other.

Markets are permissionless: anyone can open one. The front page only features curated ones — the protocol never gates who can create.

How to play

  1. Connect your wallet (top-right).
  2. Pick a chain — a switch in the panels lets you choose:
ChainYou bet inResolution
🪶 Hood (Robinhood Chain)ETHcurated
🔵 BaseUSDCtrustless (UMA oracle)
  1. The Depths → browse live markets, hit Bet SINKS or Bet SURVIVES.
  2. Call a Crash → open your own market: category, YES/NO question, close time.
  3. After it resolves, winners hit Claim. Voided markets refund everyone.

Lifecycle of a market

create ──▶ open (bets) ──▶ close ──▶ resolve ──▶ claim │ └▶ unresolved 30d ─▶ anyone voids ─▶ refund
Minimum stake — 0.005 ETH per side. A market only settles if each side holds at least 0.005 ETH at close. If one side is below that (a dust bet), the market is voided and everyone is refunded — so a tiny bet can never scoop a real pool.
On Hood: short markets (≤24h, e.g. fast rugs) are locked — no withdrawal. Longer markets can be withdrawn before close — you get 70% back, and the 30% penalty is paid to the opposite side's bettors (pro-rata, kept even if that side loses). After close, everyone's committed until resolution. On Base, stakes lock until resolution.

Fees

Two small fees, both capped in code:

FeeWhenGoes to
1% creator feeon each deposit (bet)the market creator — their reward for opening a market people bet on
2% protocol feeon each withdrawal (claim / early exit)the protocol — used to buy back & burn $WATER

So 99% of your bet enters the pool (1% to the creator), and when you withdraw your winnings the protocol takes 2% of what you pull out. The creator fee is capped at 5% and the protocol fee at 10% in code — they can never exceed those. Full refunds (voided markets) and early-exit bonuses are never taxed.

Early-exit penalty (Hood)

Withdrawing before close (on markets longer than 24h) costs a 30% penalty. That penalty is not kept by the protocol — it is paid to the opposite side's bettors, pro-rata to their stake, and they keep it even if their side loses (claimed via the Claim bonus button once the market settles). If the opposite side has no bettors, the penalty goes to the treasury. Short markets (≤24h) can't be withdrawn from, so no penalty applies there.

$WATER token

$WATER is live on Robinhood Chain: 0xdEbbe91C3c74186Eb0F71b382C576F5b11183177 · supply 1,000,000,000.

The protocol takes a 2% fee on every withdrawal. 100% of it buys back & burns $WATER — real protocol revenue turned into constant buy pressure + a shrinking supply. Just hold to become the house.

The revenue loop

Every claim / early-exit pays a 2% protocol fee to the treasury → the treasury buys $WATER on the market and burns it. More betting volume → more buybacks → less supply. No emissions, no inflation — the token captures what the protocol actually earns.

Roadmap — planned holder utility

Not live yet — directional, subject to change:

Paying a share of protocol revenue to holders is close to a dividend and can make a token a security in some jurisdictions. What you buy is the utility (fee discounts, curation, resolution); the rev-share is a discretionary reward, not a promise of profit. Nothing here is an offer or investment advice.

Trust & safety

Contracts

WhatChainAddress
Market v5 (current · fees)Robinhood (4663)0xeFCb5D8fCb0326F1dCE432fDCfA5b6E0900C1910
Market v4 (legacy · no fees)Robinhood (4663)0x0C36AbB753BF8cDeda0a337759769182aB5F70bc
Market (Base)Base (8453)0xcCe1a9B932a6f17A028582bc8a8507900ae3ce2a
$WATER tokenRobinhood (4663)0xdEbbe91C3c74186Eb0F71b382C576F5b11183177

New markets are created on v5 (1% creator fee on deposit · 2% protocol fee on withdrawal → $WATER buyback & burn). v4 markets stay live & claimable but take no fees.

Disclaimer

Experimental software — use at your own risk. Underwater Money is an unaudited MVP. Smart contracts can contain bugs; you can lose 100% of what you stake.

Withdrawals. On Hood, markets ≤24h are locked; longer markets can be withdrawn before close for 70% back (the 30% penalty goes to the opposite side). After close (and on Base) your stake is locked until resolution. Full refund only if a market is voided.

Resolution. On Base, outcomes are settled trustlessly by the UMA oracle. On Hood (MVP), outcomes are set by the protocol operator — you rely on them to resolve honestly.

Permissionless. Anyone can create a market; question text is user-supplied. Read carefully and never trust a market's wording blindly.

This is not financial advice, not an investment, and not a solicitation. Gamble responsibly and only with funds you can afford to lose. You are responsible for your own taxes and for complying with the laws of your jurisdiction.